Crypto analyst PlanB, known for his bullish outlook on Bitcoin and the stock-to-flow model, recently expressed his optimism regarding the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency. According to him, we might be witnessing the final days of Bitcoin trading below the $40,000 mark. This statement serves as a call to action based on his analysis of Bitcoin’s realized price, indicating an imminent strong price surge.
Bitcoin’s Price Performance
Bitcoin has emerged as the top-performing asset class this year, with its price soaring by over 125%. This remarkable growth has led many analysts, including PlanB, to believe that the upward trajectory will continue. PlanB’s bullish sentiment is further reinforced by his analysis of the realized price model, which suggests that the current period might be the last opportunity to purchase Bitcoin below $40,000. Realized price refers to the average price of all Bitcoin currently in circulation, and some experts argue that it provides a better measure of Bitcoin’s value compared to the market price.
Traditionally, bearish markets are characterized by a higher realized price than the spot price of Bitcoin. Conversely, bullish markets are characterized by a higher spot market price. PlanB’s analysis of the realized price trend reveals that Bitcoin’s spot price is presently trading above the overall realized cost price, the 2-year realized price, and the 5-month realized price. Drawing on historical patterns, this suggests that the market price has the potential to surge significantly higher in the near future.
PlanB’s tweet highlights the significance of the current Bitcoin price level, urging followers to “enjoy sub-$40k bitcoin…while it lasts.” As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $37,687, and Glassnode reports that its realized price stands at approximately $21,000. When questioned about the possibility of Bitcoin dropping to a lower price in the future, PlanB neither confirmed nor denied the speculation. Instead, he predicted that the cryptocurrency’s value would fluctuate between $100,000 and $1 million during the next halving cycle, which is anticipated to take place in April 2024.
PlanB’s optimistic prediction aligns with the growing sentiment surrounding Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency continues to gain mainstream adoption, particularly as stakeholders await the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. CoinShare’s latest report reveals that Bitcoin has experienced a year-to-date inflow of $1.238 billion into its digital asset investment products. Additionally, the discount on Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust has decreased from -48% at the beginning of the year to -7.31%, indicating that institutions are increasingly investing in Bitcoin amidst the mounting bullish momentum. If the discount surpasses 0%, the trust’s price would surpass the spot price of Bitcoin, a situation not witnessed since the first quarter of 2021.
While PlanB’s optimistic stance on Bitcoin’s future price surge has garnered attention, it remains crucial to approach such predictions with a critical mindset. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and influenced by numerous factors, making accurate forecasts challenging. Investors should conduct comprehensive research, consider different viewpoints, and assess their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. As Bitcoin approaches its next halving cycle, it will be intriguing to observe whether PlanB’s analysis remains accurate or requires reevaluation.