The lead Glassnode analyst, James Check, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will surpass $250,000 in the current cycle. According to him, years of HODLer conviction will play a significant role in slingshotting the price of Bitcoin to unprecedented levels. In an interview with What Bitcoin Did, Check explained why he believes the Bitcoin market is in a much stronger position compared to the last time the price reached $69,000.
Bull Market Distribution Phase
Check pointed out that the Bitcoin network has entered a “bull market distribution phase” following the launch of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs by BlackRock and Fidelity earlier this year. This phase sees high-conviction HODLers who have held onto their coins for over 155 days starting to sell their assets at a profit. Historically, this trend has been associated with identifying Bitcoin cycle tops. However, due to the significant inflows from Bitcoin ETFs, Check anticipates that the current bull cycle could last much longer.
Check emphasized the importance of passive flows, with major investment funds like BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund showing interest in investing in Bitcoin ETFs. Since their launch, these ETFs have attracted over $9.3 billion in net flows, indicating a strong demand for exposure to Bitcoin. The health of the market can be observed on-chain by analyzing Bitcoin’s “realized cap,” which has been hitting all-time highs in recent months. This metric is crucial for Check’s on-chain analysis and suggests that the network’s unrealized gains are not reaching unsustainable levels.
Predicted Price Movement
Given the current strong demand and the influx of funds into Bitcoin through ETFs, Check confidently stated that he would be “very surprised if we don’t crack $250,000 this cycle.” He believes that the previous cycle was cut short due to certain factors but sees the current market structure as robust and sustainable for further price appreciation. Check credited Bitcoin HODLers for “pulling back the slingshot” on Bitcoin’s price by reducing the circulating supply, allowing for a sharp price increase.
Check highlighted the role of demand coming from ETFs in driving up the price of Bitcoin rapidly. He emphasized the importance of understanding market dynamics and the impact of institutional investment in shaping the future price movements of Bitcoin. Check’s analysis provides valuable insights into the factors driving the current bull market and the potential for Bitcoin to reach new heights in the coming months.