Cryptocurrency expert Peter Brandt has recently made a bold claim that the Bitcoin top for this market cycle may have already been reached. He based this conclusion on his “exponential decay” thesis, suggesting that historical data indicates Bitcoin’s price has peaked. Brandt noted that Bitcoin’s percentage gain has diminished in each consecutive bull cycle, with the recent increase significantly lower compared to previous cycles.
Looking back at the historical data, Brandt highlighted the significant reduction in Bitcoin’s price gains from cycle to cycle. For instance, between 2015 and 2017, Bitcoin saw a 122x increase from its market low to market high, which was only 21.3% of the price gain recorded in the cycle between 2011 and 2013. Similarly, from 2018 to 2021, despite a 22x increase, Bitcoin only achieved 18% of the price increase from the previous cycle.
Based on his thesis, Brandt predicted that Bitcoin might only see about 20% of the price gain recorded in the previous cycle. Using $15,473 as the market low for this cycle, he estimated that the market high would be around $72,723, a level which Bitcoin has already surpassed on its way to a new all-time high of $73,750. Brandt emphasized the impact of the recent Bitcoin halving on price gains but also alluded to the possibility that Bitcoin has already topped this cycle with a 25% probability.
In the event that Bitcoin has indeed topped, Brandt suggested that the cryptocurrency could drop to the mid $30,000 range or revisit its 2021 lows. However, he viewed this potential decline as a bullish long-term scenario. From a “classical charting point of view,” Brandt hinted at the possibility of major parabolic moves to the upside for Bitcoin in the future, even if they do not occur immediately.
Brandt shared examples of what Bitcoin’s price chart could resemble when parabolic moves to the upside eventually occur, with the cryptocurrency potentially rallying above $100,000. He referenced Gold’s chart from August 2020 to March 2024 as a comparable pattern for Bitcoin’s price action in the near future. Brandt recently made a prediction that Bitcoin will surpass Gold in terms of value, highlighting the potential for significant growth in the cryptocurrency market.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, expert opinions such as Peter Brandt’s offer valuable insights into potential price movements and market cycles. While there are differing perspectives on Bitcoin’s current status, analyzing historical data and trends can provide valuable information for investors and enthusiasts. Whether Bitcoin has already topped this market cycle or is poised for further growth, staying informed and conducting thorough research is essential for making informed investment decisions in the volatile cryptocurrency market.