The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently requested spot Ethereum ETF applicants to update their 19-b4 filings, sparking greater optimism among industry insiders for potential approvals. According to sources familiar with the matter, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes that the SEC may reverse its anticipated stance and refrain from denying the pending applications. ETF Store President Nate Geraci has also suggested that the SEC could approve 19-b4 exchange listing rules while delaying decisions on S-1 registration statements. Furthermore, analysts like James Seyffart have indicated that new filings are expected to emerge in the near future, based on information gathered from multiple sources.
Increased Approval Odds for Spot Ethereum ETF
Balchunas and Seyffart have revised their odds for a spot Ethereum ETF approval to 75%, a significant increase from their previous estimates of 25% to 30%. The analysts also highlighted that the issue has evolved into an “increasingly political issue,” as discussions surrounding the matter intensify. This sentiment was echoed by various industry experts, including Bankless founder Ryan Sean Adams, who acknowledged the potential influence of politics on regulatory decisions, especially in an election year. Despite the growing optimism, some commentators like Blockchain Association Director of Government Relations Ron Hammond remain skeptical, citing political indicators and issuer comments as grounds for potential denials.
Approaching Deadlines and Market Impact
With looming deadlines for decisions on various ETF applications, the SEC faces pressure to make determinations swiftly. The decision on VanEck’s proposal for a spot ETH ETF is slated for May 23, with the possibility of simultaneous rulings on multiple applications. The prediction market Polymarket currently assigns a 10% chance for a spot Ethereum ETF approval by the end of May, based on betting activity within the crypto community. These recent developments coincide with a surge in Ethereum’s price, rising by 20% in 24 hours, particularly following the news shared by Balchunas. The broader cryptocurrency market has also experienced growth, with a 6.7% increase in overall market cap and a 5.2% rise in Bitcoin’s value over the same period.
The SEC’s actions regarding spot Ethereum ETF applications have generated a mix of optimism and skepticism within the industry. While some believe in a favorable outlook for approvals, others remain cautious due to political implications and past regulatory trends. As deadlines approach and market conditions fluctuate, stakeholders eagerly await the SEC’s final decisions on these groundbreaking financial products.