The recent performance of Ethereum has left many traders disappointed as it has failed to meet expectations in the past few months. Currently, Ethereum is stuck in a bearish trend, with its price experiencing a decline of 23% over a 30-day period. This downward trend has come as a surprise to many ETH investors who were anticipating a bullish surge following the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs.
Despite the concerns surrounding Ethereum’s price, a closer look at its historical price movements reveals that the current situation may not be as unfamiliar as it seems. Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has been conducting an ongoing analysis that suggests Ethereum’s price action in 2024 closely resembles its performance in 2016 when viewed on the monthly candlestick chart.
Repetition of Patterns
Cowen’s analysis has shown that Ethereum has been closing monthly candlesticks in a similar manner to 2016 for eight consecutive months. This pattern of repetition became more evident after August 2024 concluded with Ethereum closing on a bearish candle, mirroring the outcome in August 2016. If this trend continues, it could provide insight into how Ethereum may perform for the rest of the year.
In 2016, Ethereum experienced a massive 19,000% rally, reaching $1,590 for the first time. If Ethereum continues to follow the pattern observed in 2016, investors may expect a green monthly close in September followed by three consecutive bearish months from October to December. However, if this repetition continues, Ethereum could potentially embark on a significant price rally above its current all-time high.
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, marking a decline of 10.85% over the past seven days and 23% over the past 30 days. If the current trend continues to mimic the 2016 pattern, Ethereum’s bearish momentum may persist throughout the remainder of the year. Nevertheless, there is still hope for Ethereum bulls as the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around a critical support level that could trigger an upward rebound.
Ethereum’s price is currently at a crucial support level, specifically at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, just above $2,400. A significant bounce from this level could signal the beginning of an upward trend, potentially leading to a close above its monthly open by the end of September. If this scenario plays out, an ETH surge above $3,000 into $4,000, and subsequently $5,000, remains a possibility for the cryptocurrency.
While Ethereum’s recent performance may have been underwhelming for some traders, the historical price analysis and technical indicators suggest that there is still potential for a significant price rally in the coming months. It will be essential for investors to closely monitor Ethereum’s price movements and key support levels to gauge the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory.