Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, recently shared his pessimistic views on the immediate future of the Bitcoin price. In his X profile, Hayes admitted to taking a short position on BTC and expressed his target of sub $50k for the weekend. Despite not providing explicit reasons for his prediction, Hayes’ statement coincides with the upcoming release of significant US economic indicators on Friday.
The US jobs data has become a crucial factor for market analysts, with a potential impact on Federal Reserve policies. The Kobeissi Letter analysts highlighted the increasing influence of unemployment data on the Fed’s decisions. They mentioned that prediction markets are now anticipating 4 rate cuts in 2024 for the first time since the August 5th crash, signaling a shift towards a more dovish stance. The labor market data has deteriorated, leading to concerns among analysts about the future Fed policy decisions.
Jobs Report and Federal Reserve Expectations
Today’s jobs report will play a critical role in determining whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will opt for a 50 bps or 25 bps interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. If the jobs report meets or exceeds expectations, analysts believe a 25 bps rate cut is likely. The weakening labor market scenario was underscored by a decline in job openings, particularly in the construction sector, which saw a significant drop. The data suggests a challenging outlook for the job market, with a potential impact on the broader economy.
The negative sentiment in the Bitcoin market is further exacerbated by the weak economic data and revised forecasts. Arthur Hayes’ bearish outlook, coupled with renowned trader Peter Brandt’s technical analysis, points to a challenging road ahead for Bitcoin. Brandt highlighted an “inverted expanding triangle or a megaphone” pattern in Bitcoin’s weekly chart, suggesting a potential test of a lower boundary around $46,000. The dominance of selling pressure over buying interest indicates a challenging environment for Bitcoin bulls.
The future of the Bitcoin price appears uncertain, with market analysts and experts expressing caution about the prevailing economic conditions. The upcoming jobs report and Federal Reserve decisions will likely have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Traders and investors should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions in the volatile market environment.